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Ahmadinejad’s Holocaust Remarks Backfire At Home

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s holocaust denial may have grabbed the headlines abroad.
However in Iran, they have backfired.
Some Iranian presidential candidates, instead of denying the holocaust, are now actually confirming it.
More amazing is the fact that some of his right wing allies are so furious about the publicity which he has given to this tragedy, that they have accused him of being a closet Jew.

The article below by Meir Javedanfar, published in the Guardian explains more:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/22/ahmadinejad-holocaust-racism


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Posted on : Apr 30 2009
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Posted under Iran-Foreign Policy |

Iranian Media and Ahmadinejad’s Speech in Geneva

Have a look at this clip, from Iranian TV, which is pro Ahmadinejad.

It shows Ahmadinejad in Geneva and people clapping for him!

No sign of any diplomat leaving.

If you look closely, the camera zooms in on on his enthusiastic backers. On closer inspection we see that they are Manuchehr Mottaki, his Foreign Minister and Esfandiar Rahim Meshai, the father in law of his daughter.

http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdcf10dc.w6dexagiiw.html

However other publications in Iran did show the empty seats.

This publication belongs to Mohsen Rezai, who is Ahmadinejad’s rival in the conservative movement.

http://tabnak.ir/pages/?cid=44437

Today’s events will not bode well for Ahmadinejad’s electioneering campaign, nor for Iran’s efforts to gather international consensus for the acceptance of its nuclear program.

20th of April 2009 was a very bad day for Iranian foreign policy.


Posted on : Apr 21 2009
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Posted under Uncategorized |

“اگر هویج‌های اوباما مفید نباشند، چماق اسراییل همیشه وجود دارد”

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4150154,00.html

در حالی که باراک اوباما در صحنه بین‌المللی، دولت امریکا را آماده برای مذاکره با ایران نشان داده است و بیشتر دولت‌های اروپایی نیز معتقد به مذاکره با ایران به جای اعمال تحریم‌های بیشتر شده‌اند، بنیامین نتانیاهو نخست‌وزیر اسرائیل چندی پیش گفت که باراک اوباما باید به سرعت ایران را از دستیابی به جنگ‌افزار هسته‌ای باز دارد یا اینکه اسرائیل، ایران را بمباران می‌کند.

مئیر جاودان‌فر روزنامه‌نگار مقیم اسرائیل می‌گوید این سخنان بیشتر جنبه شعاری داشته و نیز برای اخطار به دولت ایران و شخصMeir Javedanfar آیت‌الله خامنه‌ای است.

دویچه‌وله: ژنرال پترائوس رییس فرماندهی مرکزی آمریکا به کنگره‌ی ایالات متحده گفته است که امکان دارد اسرائیل تاسیسات هسته‌ای ایران را بمباران کند. با توجه به روی کارآمدن راست‌ها در اسراییل فکر می‌کنید چقدر این خبر می‌تواند صحت داشته باشد؟

مئیر جاودان‌فر: دولت اسراییل برای حمله به ایران توافق آمریکا را لازم دارد و تا وقتی که آمریکا در منطقه چیزی حدود ۱۴۰هزار سرباز در عراق و ۲۰ هزار سرباز در افغانستان دارد، برای دولت اسراییل حمله به ایران بدون اجازه‌ی آمریکا غیرممکن خواهد بود. و همان طور که می‌بینیم الان آقای اوباما می‌خواهد با دولت آقای خامنه‌ای وارد مذاکرات بشود و به نظر من این احتمال که آمریکا برای حمله به ایران به اسراییل چراغ سبز بدهد، بسیار کاهش یافته است. بنابراین در مجموع بنیامین نتانیاهو علی‌رغم شعارها و تهدیدهای خودش علیه برنامه‌ی هسته‌ای ایران، تا وقتی که آمریکا به ایشان اجازه ندهد، نمی‌تواند شعارها و تهدیدهای خودش را عملی بکند.

پس فکر می‌کنید آقای نتانیاهو برای چه این حرفها را تکرار می‌کند؟ چون دقیقا الان با تغییر دولت در آمریکا احتمال پشتیبانی آمریکا از اسراییل برای حمله‌ی احتمالی به ایران تقریبا چیزی نزدیک به صفر است!

مئیر جاودان‌فر: از یک دیدگاه آقای نتانیاهو وقتی ایران را به عنوان یک تهدید تشریح می‌کند، حرفی می‌زند که اکثریت مردم اسراییل آن را قبول دارند و آن این است که برنامه‌ی هسته‌ای ایران به علاوه‌ی سیاست‌های دولت آیت‌الله خامنه‌ای برای اسراییل تهدید هستند. ولی طرز استفاده‌ی این نوع تهدیدها و لحنی که ایشان استفاده می‌کند تا حدی جنبه‌ی شعاری دارد. به خاطر این که آقای نتانیاهو نمی‌خواهد که با فلسطینی‌ها وارد مذاکرات صلح بشود و نمی‌خواهد هیچکدام از اراضی اشغالی را به فلسطینی‌ها پس بدهد، بنابراین الان استفاده از تهدید ایران برایشان مفیدتر شده است و بیشتر توجیه دارد و به نظر من در آینده ما خواهیم دید که ایشان تکیه‌اش به برنامه‌ی هسته‌ای ایران و تهدید ایران خیلی افزایش پیدا خواهد کرد. چون این یک پوشش است که تا حدی می‌تواند از آن برای عدم پیشرفت و عدم سرمایه‌گذاری اسراییل در روند صلح با فلسطینی‌ها استفاده بکند.

شما اشاره کردید به این که بدون موافقت و چراغ سبز آمریکا امکان ندارد که اسراییل حمله‌ای علیه ایران انجام دهد و اشاره کردید که صحبت‌های نتانیاهو بیشتر جنبه‌ی شعاری دارد. ولی اخیرا ارتش اسراییل مانورهای گسترده‌ای را انجام داده است که گفته می‌شود به نوعی سنجش آمادگی این ارتش برای حمله به ایران است. آیا چنین برداشتی در داخل اسراییل هم از این مانورها وجود دارد؟

مئیر جاودان‌فر: این مانورها یا مثلا حمله‌ی اخیر اسراییل به کامیون‌هایی در سودان که از دولت ایران اسلحه برای حماس می‌بردند، تمام اینها یک اخطار از طرف دولت اسراییل به دولت ایران است. به نظر من دولت اسراییل خیلی وقت است که توانایی حمله به ایران را دارد. اگر ما تاریخ اسراییل را مرور و مطالعه بکنیم، می‌بینیم که از دیدگاه نظامی، دولت اسراییل دولتی نیست که ’’ما نمی‌توانیم‘‘ در طرز فکرش وجود دادشته باشد مخصوصا در مسایل نظامی. چون این کشور امنیت خودش را خیلی جدی می‌گیرد. ولی برای دولت اسراییل اینها علامت‌هایی به دولت ایران و مخصوصا به آقای خامنه‌ای هستند که مذاکرات با آقای اوباما را بسیار جدی بگیرند و راه‌حلی پیدا کنند. برای این که اگر ’’هویج‌های‘‘ آقای اوباما مفید نباشند، ’’چماق‘‘ اسراییل همیشه وجود دارد.

غیر از شخص آقای نتانیاهو، مجموعه‌ی دولت کنونی اسراییل به نظر شما الان موضع‌شان نسبت به ایران رادیکال‌تر شده یا تغییری نکرده است؟

مئیر جاودان‌فر: از این دیدگاه که برنامه‌ی هسته‌ای و سیاست‌های دولت ایران برای دولت اسراییل یک خطر است، به نظر من هم چپ و هم راست در طرز فکرشان یکنواخت هستند و همبستگی و پیوستگی دارند. ولی برای راه‌حل این مسئله شکاف‌هایی وجود دارد، جبهه‌های مختلفی در اسراییل وجود دارند و جبهه‌ی کنونی که الان در نظام و در دولت ائتلافی آقای نتانیاهو هستند، اعتقادشان بیشتر این است که فقط از راه نظامی می‌شود این مسئله را حل کرد، نه از راه دیپلماسی. و به نظر من این مسئله تنها نقطه‌ی مشترک بین اعضای دولت کنونی آقای نتانیاهوست و باید اشاره کنم که این یکی از تنها نقطه‌های اشتراک دولت ائتلافی آقای نتانیاهو است و اگر این نقطه را به کنار بگذاریم، اختلافاتی که این دولت دارد و اختلافاتی که بین حزب‌های مختلفی که عضو این دولت هستند، وجود دارد، شاید باعث بشود که همین دولت کنونی آقای نتانیاهو در عرض یک یا دوسال متلاشی بشود.

الان دولت کنونی اسراییل به نظر شما بیشتر خطر را از جانب ایران در ارتباط با  پرونده‌ی هسته‌ای ایران می‌بیند یا درارتباط با نقش ایران در مسئله خاورمیانه و فلسطین؟

مئیر جاودان‌فر: برای دولت اسراییل از دیدگاه سنجش خطر، برنامه‌ی هسته‌ای ایران یک خطر بسیار بزرگتری است. چون حتا اگر دولت ایران از بمب اتمی علیه اسراییل استفاده نکند، تهدید استفاده از این ابزار نظامی می‌تواند ضربه‌ی زیادی به اقتصاد اسراییل بزند، سطح سرمایه‌گذاری در اسراییل بشدت می‌تواند کاهش پیدا بکند و این که خیلی از اسراییلی‌ها، و مردم اسراییل می‌توانند تصمیم بگیرند که نمی‌خواهند بچه‌هایشان را در این محیط و تحت یک چنین تهدیدی بزرگ بکنند. پس بنابراین برای دولت اسراییل این مسئله خیلی بیشتر جدی است، ولی در مقام دوم، حمایت ایران از گروه‌هایی مثل حماس و حزب‌الله یک مسئله‌ی خطرناکی است. ولی دولت اسراییل خودش را برای رودرویی با این مسئله، تواناتر می‌بیند، ولی برنامه‌ی هسته‌ای ایران برای دولت اسراییل پیچیده‌تر و سخت‌تر است.

مصاحبه‌گر: میترا شجاعی

تحریریه: علی امینی


Ahmadinejad: Iran won’t negotiate over the nuclear program

By: Meir Javedanfar

16/04/2009

Judging by news from Iran, negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program are over, even before they started.

According to BBC Persian, on the 15th of April, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in a speech in the city Kerman stated that “the people of Iran are people of logic and dialogue. However the time for discussions over the nuclear program has come to an end, and the clock will not go back”.

He continued to say “today, we have to discuss and collectively think about other issues such as reform of international structures, reform of the UN Security Council, and execution of justice and real peace. Iran is ready in all such areas”.

Ahmadinejad also addressed the preparation of a new package for negotiations. He stated “last year, we offered a package. However, taking into consideration new developments, we are preparing a new package which will soon be ready, and we are ready to discuss subjects mentioned in the package”.

It is very unlikely that Ahmadinejad would make such a statement without the consent of the Supreme Leader.

Therefore, judging by his statement, the nuclear program is unlikely to be part of the negotiations with Obama.

Should this happen, it would be a major victory for those who have championed tough sanctions, or even military action against Iran’s nuclear program. They could use Iran’s unwillingness to even discuss this important issue as a sign that talks with Iran are futile.

This statement is indeed a set back for all those who have been calling for a negotiated settlement over the nuclear program.

One can only hope that Ahmadinejad made the mistake of going against Khamenei.

However, if the Supreme Leader of Iran backs such a strategy, then he could have just made a major mistake. Shutting the door in the face of Obama even before talks have started is likely to make the enemies of his regime jump for joy. So soon after his conciliatory new year’s message, Obama could find that he has to gather consensus for much tougher sanctions, instead of talks. Using Khamenei’s rebuttal, he is likely to be far more successful than George Bush.

Furthermore, it could also be yet another sign which supports those who say that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is likely to be Iran’s next president. Because such statements are against what reformists believe, and want.


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Posted on : Apr 17 2009
Posted under Iran - Nuclear Program, Uncategorized |

Ahmadinejad’s Radioactive Election Campaign

By: Meir Javedanfar

12/04/2009

On the occasion of Iran’s celebration of Nuclear Day on April 9, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, had big news for the people of Iran; they announced major breakthroughs for Iran’s nuclear program. The Nuclear Day declaration was accompanied by much pomp and ceremony.

The first piece of news involved the production of nuclear fuel. The Iranian president stated: “Iran’s nuclear authorities have announced that the various cycles of nuclear fuel management are in our grasp in a comprehensive and domestically produced way.” The central point of his declaration was an assertion regarding Iran’s capability to produce uranium pellets. Once the low-enriched uranium is taken out of the centrifuges, they are placed into these pellets, which are then placed in bundles. They are then placed inside a heavily insulated pressurized chamber in the reactor, as part of the process to create heat to turn the turbines in order to produce energy.

According to Aghazadeh, “Seven thousand centrifuges had been installed in an underground nuclear facility in Natanz.” Ahmadinejad declared that Iran had tested two new types of centrifuges with “a capacity a few times higher than the existing centrifuges” currently in use.

The international community, especially Israel and France, were openly concerned by Ahmadinejad’s statement, which they interpreted as a sign of defiance.  The most interesting reaction came from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said, “We don’t know what to believe about the Iranian program.” Clinton’s statement was a diplomatic way of saying, “We don’t believe the bombastic nuclear claims made by the Iranian president.” She would be absolutely right. The statements made in such a grandiose manner by Ahmadinejad and Aghazadeh may have been new to the people of Iran. But to the outside world, they were old recycled news. The goal was to slap some cosmetic sheen on President Ahmadinejad’s election campaign.

Iran’s capability to produce uranium pellets is nothing new to the international community, which was made aware of this development back in February by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Iranian press, probably on the orders of the president and the supreme leader, did not print it at the time, so that it could be used to boost Ahmadinejad’s stature on Nuclear Day.

Furthermore, Ahmadinejad’s claim that Iran had tested two types of new centrifuges was a fact declared by the IAEA as long ago as September 2008; there was certainly nothing new about this announcement.

Meanwhile, in a desperate bid to strengthen Iran’s position before negotiations with the U.S. and to make Ahmadinejad look good, other Iranian lawmakers decided to jump on the bandwagon by making even more bombastic Nuclear Day statements.

A notable example was a declaration made by Alaeddin Borujerdi, the head of Iran’s parliamentary commission of national security and foreign policy, who stated that “the nuclear fuel cycle has been practically completed.”

To the Iranian public and to the international community, it may sound like Iran now has the capability to start running nuclear power stations. However, what Bourojerdi does not purposely mention is that while Iran may have the knowledge, it by no means has the capacity to do so. In order to make nuclear fuel for a power station, 30,000 to 40,000 centrifuges are needed to work in cascades in order to make sufficient low-enriched uranium. According to its own estimates, Iran only has 7000 centrifuges installed. This is by no means sufficient.

What Iran’s leaders also don’t say is how many of these are spinning and enriching uranium.

The IAEA does. According to its September 2008 report, Iran had 6,000 centrifuges, but “only 3,964 centrifuges were actively enriching uranium.” The rest were either empty or undergoing vacuum or dry run tests. So not only is the number of centrifuges disputable, so is Iran’s ability to make the required low-enriched uranium to power up nuclear stations.

This doesn’t mean that there is no grounds for worry. What should concern the international community is that although the current number of centrifuges are not sufficient to produce fuel for power stations, they are sufficient to enable Iran to make a bomb.

This will not be easy. The centrifuges in Natanz are under the supervision of the IAEA and under the 24-hour surveillance of its cameras. Nevertheless, the knowledge Iran has acquired in the enrichment of uranium can be used in secret facilities.

The nuclear program is the main leverage Tehran has in negotiations with the U.S. It is extremely unlikely that Iran will turn the clock back on its nuclear program. Although issues such as Iranian influence in Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Gaza may be up for grabs, nukes are not expected to be part of any compromises offered by Tehran.

President Ahmadinejad has essentially ruined the Iranian economy, a fact which has greatly damaged his popularity. He continues to try to use the nuclear program as a tool to improve his position. The statements about Iran’s nuclear achievements increase proportionally with allegations of corruption and mismanagement against him. Ahmadinejad literally has nothing else positive to show about his four year term as president.

President Obama should use these statements, and any intransigence shown by Tehran in negotiations, as justification to impose tougher sanctions. For real results, sanctions will focus on the wealth of Iran’s leadership. By naming and shaming companies owned by Iran’s leadership and Revolutionary Guards in places such as Dubai, he would strike hard at the supreme leader and his cronies who make millions from illicit deals. Although they don’t care about the suffering of the people of Iran, Iranian politicians do care about their own pocketbooks. These businesses and their profits are important to them, and they are far more likely to compromise over the nuclear program in a shorter space of time.

Striking at corrupt politicians in Iran and their business interests abroad would put America firmly on the side of the Iranian people. There is nothing that disgusts them more than government corruption, against which they are defenseless. Punishing their crooked politicians would mean much more to the hearts and minds of the people of Iran than any new year’s message.

This article originally appeared in PJM Media.


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An Iranian thaw?

- Is Iran’s leadership apocalyptic? could such beliefs spark a nuclear attack by Iran?

- Did president Ahmadinejad exaggerate Iran’s nuclear achievements in his latest speech?

- What are Israel’s concerns regarding the expected negotiations between Iran and the US?

These are some of the questions answered by Meir Javedanfar, Michael Adler of the Woodrow Wilson International Center and George Le Guelte of Institute of International Studies in Paris in this two part TV debate.

part 1

http://www.france24.com/en/20090410-thedebate-iranian-thaw-1

part 2

http://www.france24.com/en/20090409-thedebate-iranian-thaw-2


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Analysis: Thursday is Nuclear Day in Iran

This Thursday, 9th of April is nuclear day in Iran.
President Ahmadinejad is scheduled to make a speech about Iran’s nuclear
achievements during the past year.
The article below in The Guardian by Meir Javedanfar looks at the domestic and foreign policy implications and background of Ahmadinejad’s upcoming nuclear declarations.
It also analyzes the potential impact of nuclear day ceremony on Ahmadinejad’s campaign and whether it could boost his chances of reelection.

To read click below
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/06/iran-nuclear-power