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Archive for the ‘Middle East’ Category:
Why Tehran Fears Livni
By: Meir Javedanfar
18/10/2008
According to the Alexa web ranking company, Tabnak.ir is the most popular Persian language news website in the world. It is owned by Mohsen Rezai, who was the 4th commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). Based in Tehran, Tabnak represents a more moderate view of the IRGC and of the conservative wing of the Iranian leadership. It also happens to be one of the main critics of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and his economic policies.
On the 7th of October 2008, it published an article entitled “Israel’s New Propaganda Method: Hello Neighbour”, in which it accused Tzipi Livini of trying to reach out to Israel’s neighbours.
Quoting from an article in Egypt’s Al Ahram newspaper, the article quotes Livini as saying “Israel wants to have
good relations with its neighbors. Palestinians are our neighbors, and so are Syria, Lebanon, and other Arab countries”.
The article also quotes Livni as saying “Iran is not solely our problem. The international community should decide for its own future, and only negotiations at a global level can solve the Iranian issue”.
What is interesting is that Tabnak sees Tzipi Livni’s approach in a negative light. According to its analysis, the new head of the Kadima party is doing this because of falling popularity of her party.
What Tabnak doesn’t say is that as far as Iran’s leadership is concerned, Iran has every intention to make Israel look like a war monger. The recent threats made by Israeli ministers such as Shaul Mofaz and Rafi Eitan were a gift to them, which they fully used to their advantage.
A soft spoken Israeli leader, who openly talks about improving relations with Israel’s neighbors, and is not threatening war is against Iran’s interests. Therefore she must be discredited as soon as possible. Otherwise it could cause a serious setback to Tehran’s efforts.
Iran’s concerns are compounded by the fact that Barack Obama is ahead in the polls. Having Livni as Prime Minister of Israel, Obama as president of the US, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran is a cocktail for diplomatic disaster for Tehran in places such as the EU and the UN.
What the Iranian government desperately needs is hostile remarks from the US and Israel. Their absence would make Ahmadinejad look even more aggressive and belligerent without justification, thus leading to even more isolation of Iran. And contrary to some beliefs, Iran does take its position in the international community seriously. With oil reaching new lows and Iraq stabilizing, it has to.
The time has arrived for Israel’s leadership to follow Livni’s example. Threatening Iran is counter productive. Such threats would justify a massive Iranian military retaliation in case of an Israeli strike. Tehran could say that Israel too has been threatening its security and sovereignty. And if Israel eventually decides against launching a military strike, then all these threats would make Jerusalem look like a toothless tiger, thus damaging Israel’s deterrence image.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and right wing extremists in the Iranian government are Israel’s enemies. Their reckless talk is a gift which Jerusalem should not return to the sender.
Challenge Of Food Security In The Middle East
By: Meir Javedanfar
28/08/2008
It is not just the question of the approaching beyond oil age, which is worrying some Middle Eastern countries, especially oil producing ones. The prospect of loss of oil and gas as a major source of income and domestic energy, is now compounded by another major problem and that is the rising price of food.
Lack of water is one factor which is making agriculture and food production more costly. This is together with years of government neglect for the agriculture sector. Until now, many Middle East countries could import food cheaply from abroad, and subsidize it in order to make it affordable to their population. But now, as price of food is increasing, this is making the job of importing and subsidizing much more costly.
This is especially true in countries which are not rich in natural resources, such as Egypt and Jordan. Rising food prices have added to instability in both countries. For example, there were riots in Egypt in April this year over rising bread prices (see video). Such instability provides an opportunity for extremist groups to gain more support by offering their own subsidized food services, as has been the case in Jordan. These services bring more support, and credit for such organization, while the government is made to look corrupt and incompetent.
One of the proposals which is being looked at is for such countries to follow the example of Brunei in the 1970s. Realizing that it does not have the capacity to produce its own food on its own soil, the Brunei government bought massive farms in Australia. Whatever food was produced there, it imported, thus making its food production less vulnerable to hostile local weather conditions. The reduction in dependency on foreign markets also enabled the government to become less vulnerable to massive market fluctuations in prices in international market.
Now rich Saudis and Kuwaitis are doing the same, by scouring places as far away as Sudan, to Ukraine. However, this may lead to resentment in such countries, whereby Saudis are seen to be buying up much needed commodity for themselves, while locals struggle.
Developing domestic capacity to locally produce food is the best long term solution. Many Middle Eastern countries are suffering from high unemployment. More want to diversify their economy away from oil. This is especially true as a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that $45 trillion is needed for investment in non-oil sources of energy in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 50% by the year 2050. This will hit the pockets of oil producers even further.
Investing in the food sector could produce the jobs and diversification needed. It could also add to their strategic importance, due to rising importance of food as a strategic asset by governments all over the world. Life without oil would be difficult. Without food, it would be impossible.