Subscribe to RSSRussia Asks That Iran Be Given More Time
Meir Javedanfar
07/08/2008
In a surprising turnaround, the Russian government has now requested that Iran is given more time to produce a response to the package of incentives offered by the 5+1 groups.
This is surprising because the Russians, as part of the 5+1 group, were involved in giving the government of president Ahmadinejad the original 2 weeks deadline, in mid July.
The question to ask is why has Russia decided to split from the group, by providing its own conditions?
First and foremost, it could be because the Russians don’t believe that Iran is close to making a nuclear bomb. If they were, it is very unlikely that they would allow Tehran to stall the international community in such a way. A nuclear Iran would create much instability in the region, something which would hurt Russia’s own security and interests. One hopes that they are right, although many intelligence agencies doubt this. Even the IAEA is not sure that Iran’s nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.
Secondly, the new economically emboldened Russia, “living on crazy money”, as one Russian Economic professor put it, is vying to reclaim its position in the global balance of power, against the US. Moscow feels very threatened by US plans to build a missile shield in central Europe. In fact Russia is considering deploying strategic bombers or station tactical missiles in its close ally Belarus to counter this. Moscow hopes that by creating its own stance, it will have more control over the Iranian nuclear negotiations, thus giving president Medvedev more leverage to use against Washington.
Last but not least, there is the question of economics. Russia has one of the world’s largest gas reserves. It has recently signed a cooperation memorandum with Iran, which ahs the world’s second largest gas reserves. This is a huge win for Moscow, something which it would be unwilling to lose.
What is needed is for the EU and US to try and bring Russia back into the fold. Iran’s refusal to accept the EU incentives has given more voice to those who say that negotiations with Iran are a waste of time. Should Russia allow Iran to distance itself from addressing the core issue of negotiations (ie. Suspension of Uranium enrichment), it will embolden conservatives in Iran, especially president Ahmadinejad.
It could also bring the world closer to the 2 worst options: living with a nuclear Iran, or going to war against it. This is the wrong move at the wrong time by Moscow. The North Korean nuclear program was stopped because Russia acted in unison with the US, as part of the six party talks. The same approach and level of responsibility is needed from Russia, as a member of 5+1 countries who have the important task of dealing with Iran’s nuclear program.
